Estimates

Source: S&P Capital IQ consensus via Xpressfeed · Generated 2026-08-03.

Margin Without Volume

Consensus expects Maximus to earn materially more on a smaller revenue base. FY2026 revenue is set 2.5% below FY2025 reported while EBIT rises 15.4% and normalized EPS rises 14.6%; the revision record over six months tells the same story, with FY2027 EPS marked up 4.5% and FY2027 revenue marked down. The prints agree — three consecutive revenue misses, EPS beats anyway. Two analysts carry the whole tape.

FY2027 EPS is up 4.5% in six months, against a -3.3% revision to FY2027 revenue

Source: derived from vendor data.

Source: derived from vendor data.

The two lines moved in opposite directions over the same window and neither move was a single jolt. FY2027 normalized EPS stepped 8.68, then 8.92, then 9.07, and has not moved since — a 4.5% mark-up delivered in two increments. FY2027 revenue went the other way, from 5,741 six months ago to 5,589.746 three months ago and 5,551 today, a -3.3% revision of which -0.7% arrived in the last three months.

A margin-led upgrade is what this shape describes: the street is taking revenue out of FY2027 and putting earnings in. Note also what the feed does not carry — revision history exists for FY2027 only, so the same test cannot be run on FY2026, and both series have been unchanged for a month. Direction is the readable signal here, not precision.

Three straight revenue misses, and EPS beat anyway in six of the last eight quarters

Source: derived from vendor data.

The print record splits along the same seam as the revisions. Revenue has come in below consensus three times running — -1.7%, -2.2% and -0.9% — after five quarters of beats. Normalized EPS has kept beating through that run, by 1.6% and 5.3% in the two most recent quarters.

What has changed is the size of the EPS beat, not its direction. The 45.7% and 40.7% surprises in the middle two quarters of FY2025 were the kind of gaps that force estimates up; the last two quarters clear consensus by low single digits. That reads as the street having caught up to the earnings power it under-modelled a year ago, with the revenue line still running slightly ahead of what the business is delivering.

FY2026 is a margin year: revenue -2.5%, EBIT +15.4%, GAAP EPS +34.9%

Source: derived from vendor data.

FY2026 is the year the tape is really making a claim about. Revenue falls 2.5% against FY2025 reported, and every line below it rises: EBITDA 6.8%, EBIT 15.4%, normalized EPS 14.6%. The GAAP EPS step of 34.9% is the largest of the set and the least informative — it is measured off a FY2025 base depressed by the gap between reported and normalized earnings, discussed below.

FY2027 is a different year entirely. Revenue returns to 4.8% growth, and the earnings lines converge on it at 4.6% to 7.5%. So the consensus is not underwriting a durable margin engine; it is underwriting one step-change in FY2026 and normal operating leverage thereafter.

Source: derived from vendor data.

Consensus gross margin climbs from 22.4% to 26.0%, then gives a little back

Source: derived from vendor data.

The margin tab is where the FY2026 earnings step comes from. Consensus gross margin runs 22.4% and 22.05% in the first half of FY2025 and reaches 25.7% and 26.0% in the second half of FY2026 — the highest quarterly figures anywhere in the visible tape. It then settles back to 25.1% and 25.0% in FY2027, consistent with the annual line easing from 25.4% to 25.3%.

The revenue tab shows what is not happening alongside it. Quarterly revenue sits in a narrow band from 1,306 to 1,348 across six quarters spanning reported and estimated periods, then steps to 1,409 in 1Q27. That step is the entire FY2027 growth reacceleration, and it is worth knowing that the FY2027 quarterly rows carry a single contributor where the annual rows carry two. Driver-level detail behind these quarters sits on the Visible Alpha tab; the headline tape supports the shape and not the cause.

The gap between GAAP and normalized EPS almost halves in FY2026

Source: derived from vendor data.

FY2025 reported GAAP EPS of 5.51 against normalized EPS of 7.36 leaves a 1.85 gap. Consensus carries that gap at 1.00 in FY2026 and marginally wider in FY2027. Most of the headline 34.9% GAAP EPS growth in FY2026 is therefore the gap closing rather than the operating business doubling its pace — the normalized line, up 14.6%, is the cleaner read.

Whatever sits in that reconciliation is not identified in this feed, so the change should be read as an assumption the street is carrying, not an explained one.

Two analysts carry this tape, and the FY2027 quarterly path rests on one

Source: derived from vendor data.

There is no genuine disagreement to report here, because there is barely a consensus. The two contributors sit within 8.4 to 8.47 on FY2026 normalized EPS and within 5,273.8 to 5,317.89 on FY2026 revenue. The widest gap anywhere is FY2027 EBITDA, 767.9 to 800.178 — and even that is one broker against another, not a spread.

The practical consequence is that every figure on this page moves if either contributor changes its model, and the FY2027 quarterly shape moves if the single contributor behind it does. Treat the direction of revision as the signal and the level as provisional.

Both ratings are Outperform, on a target range of $85 to $125

Source: derived from vendor data.

Both in-consensus recommendations are Outperform, with no buy, hold, sell or underperform ratings recorded, and the mean and median target are the same at 105. The high and low targets are set by the same two contributors that produce every estimate above, so the range is a description of two views rather than a market-wide band. This feed carries no share price, so nothing here should be read as implied upside.